Plant Diversity ›› 2011, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 335-349.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1143.2011.10187

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The Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distributions of Seven Arbors Plants in China

 TUN  Jian-Guo   

  1. Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
  • Received:2010-10-24 Online:2011-06-25 Published:2010-12-08

Abstract:

It is crucial to understand rationally the effects of climate change on the distribution of species for the conservation of biodiversity. To conserve effectively plants biodiversity under climate change, the effects of climate change on the distributions of Qinling Fir (Abies chensiensis), Qilian Savin (Sabina przewalskii), Zhennan (Phoebe zhennan), Sergeant Spruce (Picea brachytyla), China Horsetailtree (Rhoiptelea chiliantha), Manyseeded Euptelea (Euptelea pleiospermn) and China Katsuratree (Cercidiphyllum japonicum) in China was analyzed using the CART (classification and regression tree) model and climate change scenarios of A2 and B2. The results showed that climate change in China would cause decrease in the current distribution of these plants. It would cause a decrease in the new distribution or total distribution region of China Katsuratree, China Horsetailtree, Zhennan, and Qilian Savin from periods of 1991-2020 to periods of 2081-2100. It would also cause decrease in the new distribution and total distribution region of Qinling Fir from periods of 1991-2020 to periods of 2021-2050 year or a increase from periods of 2051-2100 to periods of 2021-2050 year. It would cause an increase in the new distribution or total distribution region of other plants increase from periods of 1991-2020 year to periods of 2081-2100 year. They were higher in A2 scenario than that in B2 scenario. Additionally, under climate change, the southeast of current distribution regions of Horsetailtree would reduce. Their new distribution regions would expand towards west, southwest, north or northeast of the current distribution regions. The southeast or east of current distribution regions of Qinling Fir would reduce. Their new distribution regions would expand towards west or northwest or north or southwest of current distribution regions. The northeast, southeast or south or east of current distribution regions of the other plants would reduce. Their new distribution regions of them would expand towards west or southwest of current distribution regions. Changing in current distribution, new distribution or total distribution region of the plants did not consistently change with changing in annual mean temperature or precipitation in China, and some plants were poor related with changing in annual mean temperature or precipitation in China. The linear regression relationship between changing in some plants distribution and annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation in China were poor. The results indicated that climate change in China would cause changing in spatial distribution pattern of these plants, decrease in current distribution region of them.

Key words: Climate change, Qinling Fir, Qilian Savin, Zhennan, Sergeant Spruce, China Horsetailtree, Manyseeded Euptelea, China Katsuratree, Endangered plant

CLC Number: 

  • Q 948