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Plant Diversity ›› 2013, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 513-521.DOI: 10.7677/ynzwyj201312109

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国主要农作物产量波动影响因素分析

 郭梁1、3, Andreas Wilkes2, 于海英1, 许建初1、2   

  1. 1 中国科学院昆明植物研究所资源植物与生物技术重点实验室，云南 昆明650201；
    2 世界农用林业研究中心，北京100081；3 中国科学院大学，北京100049
  • 收稿日期:2012-09-04 出版日期:2013-07-25 发布日期:2013-02-25
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金 (31270524)和国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目 (31101753)

Analysis of Factors Influencing Yield Variability of Major Crops in China

 GUO  Liang-1、3, Andreas  Wilkes2, YU  Hai-Ying-1, XIU  Jian-Chu-1、2   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Economic Plants and Biotechnology, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
    Kunming 650201, China; 2 World Agroforestry Centre, Beijing 100081, China; 3 University of
    Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2012-09-04 Online:2013-07-25 Published:2013-02-25

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摘要：

为研究我国主要农作物（粮食、水果、油料、糖料和棉花作物）产量波动特征及相关影响因素，以我国1981~2010年主要农作物产量和种植面积资料为基础，同时利用4 种方法对农作物单产进行趋势拟合与分解。结果表明：（1）近 30 年来我国农作物总产和单产都逐步提高，特别是水果产量的增长最快，其中柑橘单产年均增长率达7.09%；各类作物趋势产量也呈上升趋势；但气象产量波动剧烈， 年际间缺乏连续性， 其中水果气象产量波动幅度最大 （柑橘为17.76%、 苹果为15.83%）。（2）作物总产的年际波动中，种植面积和单产因素的贡献率因作物类型不同而有所差异，其中粮食作物和水果总产波动的主要原因是单产波动，糖料作物和棉花产量波动主要因种植面积波动导致，油料作物总产的波动中单产和种植面积贡献相当。（3）各类作物单产年际波动均取决于气象因素，农业政策和科技进步等社会因素对单产年际波动的贡献较低。（4）作物趋势产量的 4 种拟合方法，其结果无显著差异。各影响因素对我国农作物产量波动的贡献率因作物类型不同而有所差异；重视作物单产提高、关注气候变化对农作物生产的影响是目前我国农业安全生产的重要任务。

关键词: 农作物, 单产, 种植面积, 产量波动, 趋势产量, 气象因子

Abstract:

 The objective of this research was to analyze the characteristics and major factors influencing yield variability of a number of major crops in China from 1981 to 2010. Based on data for yield and sown area of a crop, four methods were used to separate crop trend yield and meteorological yield from actual yield. There was an association between total yield and per unit area yield for all major crops over the past 30 years in China. The per unit area yields of fruits increased more rapidly than other crops, and was about 7.09% for citrus fruit annually. The trend yield for different crops also increased year by year. However, meteorological yield fluctuated greatly with greatest fluctuations occurring for fruits (17.76% for citrus and 15.83% for apple). The contributions of sown area and per unit area yield to variability of total yield varied among the major crops. For grains and fruits, the contribution of per unit area yield had the dominant effect, while the opposite was the case for sugar crops and cotton. For oil crops both factors contributed almost equally. The variability in per unit area yield of all crops could be largely attributed to variability of meteorological factors. Social factors, such as agricultural policy and improved technology, played relatively lesser roles. The four methods used in the analysis showed no significant differences. The contributions of the above factors to yield variability were species dependent. To ensure agricultural production security, more attention should be paid to enhance the per unit area yield of crops together with the impact of climate change on yields.

Key words: Crop, Yield per unit area, Sown area, Yield variability, Trend yield, Meteorological factors

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