气候变化对7种乔木植物分布的潜在影响

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1143.2011.10187

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用CART(classification and regression tree，分类和回归树)生态位模型，采用A2和B2气候情景，分析了气候变化对秦岭冷杉、祁连圆柏、楠木、麦吊云杉、马尾树、领春木和连香树分布范围及空间格局的影响。结果显示：气候变化下，这些植物目前适宜分布范围呈现缩小趋势；新适宜及总适宜分布范围，连香树、马尾树、楠木和祁连圆柏呈现减少趋势，秦岭冷杉在1991-2020年及2021-2050年时段呈现减少趋势，之后增加，其它植物呈现增加趋势。气候变化下，马尾树目前适宜分布的东南部一些区域将不再适宜，新适宜分布区将向西南、北部、西部和东北部一些区域扩展；秦岭冷杉目前适宜分布的东南部和东部一些区域将不再适宜，新适宜分布区将向西南部、西北部和西部一些区域扩展；其它植物目前适宜分布的东部、东南部、南部及东北部一些区域将不再适宜，新适宜分布区将向西部和西南部一些区域扩展。气候变化下，这些植物适宜分布范围与年均气温和降水量变化相关性并不一致，一些植物适宜分布范围与年均气温和降水量变化相关系数不显著。另外，一些植物适宜范围与年降水量和年均气温变化多元线性回归关系决定系数较小。结果说明,气候变化下，目前适宜范围缩小，新适宜范围主要向高海拔扩展，不同植物适宜分布范围与年均气温和年降水量变化的关系不同。

关键词: 气候变化, 秦岭冷杉, 祁连圆柏, 楠木, 麦吊云杉, 马尾树, 领春木, 连香树, 濒危植物

Abstract:

It is crucial to understand rationally the effects of climate change on the distribution of species for the conservation of biodiversity. To conserve effectively plants biodiversity under climate change, the effects of climate change on the distributions of Qinling Fir (Abies chensiensis), Qilian Savin (Sabina przewalskii), Zhennan (Phoebe zhennan), Sergeant Spruce (Picea brachytyla), China Horsetailtree (Rhoiptelea chiliantha), Manyseeded Euptelea (Euptelea pleiospermn) and China Katsuratree (Cercidiphyllum japonicum) in China was analyzed using the CART (classification and regression tree) model and climate change scenarios of A2 and B2. The results showed that climate change in China would cause decrease in the current distribution of these plants. It would cause a decrease in the new distribution or total distribution region of China Katsuratree, China Horsetailtree, Zhennan, and Qilian Savin from periods of 1991-2020 to periods of 2081-2100. It would also cause decrease in the new distribution and total distribution region of Qinling Fir from periods of 1991-2020 to periods of 2021-2050 year or a increase from periods of 2051-2100 to periods of 2021-2050 year. It would cause an increase in the new distribution or total distribution region of other plants increase from periods of 1991-2020 year to periods of 2081-2100 year. They were higher in A2 scenario than that in B2 scenario. Additionally, under climate change, the southeast of current distribution regions of Horsetailtree would reduce. Their new distribution regions would expand towards west, southwest, north or northeast of the current distribution regions. The southeast or east of current distribution regions of Qinling Fir would reduce. Their new distribution regions would expand towards west or northwest or north or southwest of current distribution regions. The northeast, southeast or south or east of current distribution regions of the other plants would reduce. Their new distribution regions of them would expand towards west or southwest of current distribution regions. Changing in current distribution, new distribution or total distribution region of the plants did not consistently change with changing in annual mean temperature or precipitation in China, and some plants were poor related with changing in annual mean temperature or precipitation in China. The linear regression relationship between changing in some plants distribution and annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation in China were poor. The results indicated that climate change in China would cause changing in spatial distribution pattern of these plants, decrease in current distribution region of them.

Key words: Climate change, Qinling Fir, Qilian Savin, Zhennan, Sergeant Spruce, China Horsetailtree, Manyseeded Euptelea, China Katsuratree, Endangered plant

中图分类号:

Q 948

吴建国. 气候变化对7种乔木植物分布的潜在影响[J]. Plant Diversity, 2011, 33(3): 335-349.

TUN Jian-Guo. The Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distributions of Seven Arbors Plants in China[J]. Plant Diversity, 2011, 33(3): 335-349.

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