关键词: 生态位模型, 入侵植物, 分布, 加拿大一枝黄花, 预测

Abstract: Solidago canadensis L . is a perennial plant of the family Asteraceae , native to North American . It is one of the most harmful alien species in mainland China . This research applied Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP)
ecological niche modeling to predict the species′potential range in China on the basis of occurrence points . The results indicated that: Environmental factors such as Slope, aspect, annual precipitation, wet days, flow accumulation, flow direction, maximum temperature and frost days greatly influenced the size of S . canadensis′s potential range , while parameters
such as minimum temperature and mean annual temperature had little impact . Areas that we predict to have potential for invasion were still larger than those areas that had been invaded . Therefore , S. canadensis is predicted to continue to expand in China . Northeast and south- central China was most liable to be invaded; hence urgent measures should be taken there to prevent this species from further spreading .

Key words: GARP model